Empirical assessment of the relationship between inflation, exchange rate and unemployment in Nigeria, 1999-2021
Abstract
The correlation between unemployment and inflation is a significant topic in economics, as unemployment remains a global economic issue. Achieving price stability is agreed to have a positive impact on employment and economic growth, though finding the ideal balance is difficult. Central banks worldwide are striving to boost employment levels while maintaining price stability. In analyzing annual data from 1999 to 2021, the ARDL model and Bound test were used to study how changes in price levels affect unemployment in Nigeria. The findings show that a 1% inflation rate increase results in a 0.10% long-term unemployment rate increase. A 1% change in the exchange rate leads to a 1.2% increase in the unemployment rate. GDP has a negative but insignificant effect on the unemployment rate, correlating with a 1.3% decrease. While a long-term relationship exists between unemployment and inflation, there is divergence corrected at a 38% annual adjustment rate. Economic deepening, rather than solely relying on monetary targeting, can support maintaining an optimal inflation rate and minimal unemployment level.
How to Cite This Article
Umar Halidu Ahmad (2023). Empirical assessment of the relationship between inflation, exchange rate and unemployment in Nigeria, 1999-2021 . International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation (IJMRGE), 4(2), 180-185.