Abstract

Among the causes that originate the maximum wind speed in Cuba are tropical cyclones (hurricanes, extra tropical systems of the winter season (extra tropical lows and cold fronts); severe local storms typical of the summer and strong breezes due to the influence of continental and oceanic high pressures. This work models and forecasts in the long term when Villa Clara province could be impacted by a hurricane, starting in the year 2023. With this forecast we will be able to be alert about the risk of impact using local mathematical and statistical models. In order to carry out the study, a database of cyclones that have affected Villa Clara province from 1886 to 2017 was used, and the variables Year, Month, Day in which they affected Villa Clara were created, as well as the speed calculated according to the reanalysis data. First, these variables were modeled with the help of the ROR methodology, and then a long-term forecast was made, of when we could be affected by a tropical organism. Highly significant models with small errors were obtained, which allow us to obtain the dates and speed in which we could be affected by cyclones in Villa Clara. For 2023, on October 13, we could be affected with speeds higher than 100 km/h, according to the classification of tropical cyclonic organisms for winds between 64 and 118 km/h they are called tropical storms, therefore, this category is present in our forecast for 2023, while in 2025, 2030 and 2034 a hurricane of low intensity may occur.