Abstract

Objective: To predict the selling price of curly red chilies in traditional/local markets in several cities in West Java Province to provide certainty about price trends in order to reduce potential risks that traders may face.
Methodology: This study uses secondary time series data on the daily price of curly red chillies from May to July 2023. Quantitative analysis of three trend regression models is used, and the best model for forecasting is the exponent trend. Forecasting is carried out for the next 45 days until August 2023. Risk analysis uses actual market data and forecasts accompanied by standard deviation analysis.
Findings: Actual data on the price per kilogram of curly red chilies in traditional/lokal markets in several cities experienced fluctuations from May to July 2023 with an average growth of 0.75%. The estimation results and the choice of the best model for forecasting is the exponential trend. Through forecasting, curly red chilli prices will continue to increase going forward, with an average growth of 1.51% per day. The risk of an increase in the price of curly red chillies on the Eid al-Adha 2023 is very large compared to a decrease in prices in conditions of a production surplus. The risk of rising prices is even greater after the holidays.
Conclusion: Chili price fluctuations are caused by changes in season, weather, harvest, and holiday conditions. The risk of rising chilli prices is getting bigger for future developments.