Abstract

The number of death cases caused by infectious diseases, that is to say diphtheria, especially in West Java so that it is categorized as an Extraordinary Event (KLB) generally attacks from the age of toddlers to the elderly. To model diphtheria cases in West Java in 2022 containing overdispersion using Geographically Weighted Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression (GWZIPR). Parameter estimation uses Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm with spatial weight using Adaptive Gaussian Kernel. The resulting models include a Poisson state model that shows the chance of diphtheria cases occurring with relevant factors of the percentage within the populationwho apply Hygienic and Healthful Lifestyle (PHBS), who have been vaccinated against DPT-HB3, the number of health workers at Puskesmas, and the percentage of active posyandu and a Zero state model that shows the chance of no diphtheria cases occurring with relevant factors of the percentage who have been vaccinated against DPT-HB3, the number of health workers at Puskesmas, and the percentage of active posyandu.