Abstract

This study examines forest fire occurrences, distribution, and risk mapping in Nowshera Forest Division, District Rajouri, Jammu and Kashmir a northern state of India, using advanced geospatial techniques validated through methods like Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), Space-Time Cube Analysis (STC), and Emerging Hot Spot (EHS) Analysis. It utilizes archive data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Near Real-Time (NRT) fire data, sourced from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). A NetCDF file, capable of storing four-dimensional data, was developed using two decades of data to analyze forest fire trends and project future scenarios. The study establishes relationships between fire incidents and triggering factors such as human settlements, roads, climate, elevation, slope, aspect, forest type, canopy density, soil moisture, wind speed, and forest health. A forest fire risk map with four risk classes—extreme, severe, moderate, and mild—has been generated. These findings are invaluable for managers, planners, and stakeholders involved in disaster management, providing a robust methodology for forest fire preparedness.