Assessing economic risks and returns of energy transitions with quantitative financial approaches
Abstract
The global shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is accelerating as countries seek to achieve sustainable economic growth and mitigate climate change. However, energy transitions involve significant economic risks and returns, necessitating robust financial analysis to inform policy and investment decisions. This study assesses the economic risks and returns associated with energy transitions by employing quantitative financial approaches, including risk assessment models, discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, and scenario analysis. The research incorporates macroeconomic data and industry-specific financial metrics to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of transitioning to renewable energy across different sectors and regions. Key findings reveal that while energy transitions require substantial upfront capital investments in infrastructure and technology, they yield long-term economic returns through cost savings, job creation, and reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. However, the risks include stranded assets, market disruptions, and financial uncertainty for industries reliant on non-renewable energy sources. The analysis highlights regional disparities in the financial viability of energy transitions, with developed economies showing greater resilience due to stronger policy frameworks and access to capital, whereas developing economies face challenges in financing and infrastructure. By employing scenario analysis, the study examines various pathways for energy transitions under different policy, technological, and market conditions. Results indicate that strategic investments in renewable energy technologies and supportive regulatory environments can significantly mitigate economic risks while maximizing returns. The findings also emphasize the importance of integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into investment decision-making to ensure a sustainable and equitable transition. This research provides actionable insights for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders to navigate the complexities of energy transitions. By leveraging quantitative financial approaches, the study offers a comprehensive framework for assessing the economic implications of transitioning energy systems, aligning with global efforts to achieve a low-carbon future.
How to Cite This Article
Oluwole Oluwadamilola Agbede, Experience Efeosa Akhigbe, Ajibola Joshua Ajayi, Nnaemeka Stanley Egbuhuzor (2021). Assessing economic risks and returns of energy transitions with quantitative financial approaches . International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation (IJMRGE), 2(1), 552-566. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54660/.IJMRGE.2021.2.1.552-566