Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Performance in Nigeria
Abstract
The study examines the effect of oil price and exchange rate volatility on trade performance in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to: ascertain the effect of oil price volatility on trade performance in Nigeria; determine the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade performance in Nigeria and evaluate direction of causality relationship among oil price volatility, exchange rate volatility and trade performance in Nigeria over a period of 1990 to 2024. These variables consist of exchange rate (EXCH); crude oil price (OILP) and government expenditure (GEXP), balance of trade (BOT) while inflation rate (INFL) and external government debt (EXTD) were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) statistical bulletin 2024. The data collected were subjected to descriptive statistic, correlation matrix, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test statistic and Johansen Co-integration test. The method of data analysis was Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). The empirical result shows that the coefficient of crude oil price volatility has positive and significant impact on trade performance (Z–statistics (3.02804), its probability value of 0.0025 > 0.05.); exchange rate volatility has positive and significant impact on trade performance (Z–statistics (5.136151), its probability value of 0.0000 > 0.05) and crude oil price and exchange rate have uni-directional relationship with trade performance in Nigeria. This study concluded that oil price and exchange rate volatility have positive and significant effect on trade performance in Nigeria. The study recommended that government should take measures for stability of the exchange rate to enhance trade performance such as control of import content of both public and private expenditures, stop importation of goods and services that can be produced locally as an avenue for reducing demand for foreign exchange.
How to Cite This Article
Nnadede Augustine Chinatu, Venantius Onyekachukwu Patrick Mgbeasiri (2025). Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Performance in Nigeria . International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation (IJMRGE), 6(5), 273-284.