Abstract

This study analyzes 19 years (2006-2024) of student performance in the Samoan Year 13 Mathematics national examination to diagnose systemic issues. The analysis reveals a system in profound crisis, characterized by three interconnected problems: (1) systemic instability, with volatile and low pass rates; (2) deep-seated structural inequity, creating a ‘two-tiered’ system where Science/Commerce students significantly outperform Arts/General peers; and (3) compounding demographic pressure from a growing student population. The study argues for transformative intervention, including differentiated learning pathways, targeted support for vulnerable streams, and systemic reform to avert the continuation of high failure rates and profound educational inequality.