Preventive Treasury Controls and FX Risk Mitigation in Emerging Market Multinationals: A Conceptual Model
Abstract
Emerging market multinationals (EMMs) face a distinctive foreign exchange (FX) risk profile shaped by volatile local currencies, underdeveloped hedging markets, capital-account frictions, and the joint translation exposure arising from operating across multiple volatile currencies. Standard hedging theory, developed largely in the context of developed-market multinationals, does not straightforwardly accommodate these conditions. This article develops a conceptual model of preventive treasury control for FX risk mitigation in EMM contexts. Drawing on value-based hedging theory (Smith & Stulz, 1985; Froot, Scharfstein, & Stein, 1993), the empirical literature on corporate hedging practice (Bartram et al., 2011; Allayannis & Weston, 2001), and the treasury-control literature (COSO, 2013; IIA, 2020), the model positions FX control as a preventive rather than detective activity. Five preventive control elements are
specified: exposure identification, policy and governance, instrument and counterparty selection, execution discipline, and settlement control. Each element is mapped to the distinctive constraints facing EMMs, including limited forward market depth beyond short tenors, non-deliverable forward reliance, counterparty concentration, and the interaction between FX exposure and local accounting disclosure requirements. The model generates propositions about the relationship between preventive control maturity and firm-level outcomes including earnings volatility, cost of external finance, and audit scope. The article concludes by identifying three priority empirical directions: comparative studies of FX control maturity across EMMs in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America; the interaction between central-bank capital-flow policies and corporate hedging cost; and the effect of internal FX policy codification on hedging-decision latency.
How to Cite This Article
Elizabeth A Dogbatsey, Osemudiamhen Ebhojie, Ajibola Oluwafemi Oyeleye (2020). Preventive Treasury Controls and FX Risk Mitigation in Emerging Market Multinationals: A Conceptual Model . International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation (IJMRGE), 1(5), 1007-1020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54660/.IJMRGE.2020.1.5.1007-1020