Abstract

Small businesses are fundamental drivers of economic development in emerging economies, yet they are disproportionately vulnerable to operational risks due to volatile environments, limited resources, and informal structures. This paper proposes a robust risk assessment modeling framework tailored specifically for small business contexts in these regions. Grounded in a structured conceptual approach, the framework introduces three interlinked components: a contextualized risk identification and categorization layer, an early-warning indicator matrix based on environmental, organizational, and market-level signals, and a tiered mitigation model architecture aligned with business resource capacity and urgency of response. Unlike traditional models that emphasize quantitative or simulation-heavy analysis, this framework accommodates qualitative insights and informal business realities. The paper contributes theoretically by integrating early-warning mechanisms with actionable risk responses and offers practical relevance for entrepreneurs, advisors, and policymakers aiming to enhance business resilience. Recommendations for future research include empirical validation, technological integration, and sector-specific customization to broaden its applicability and impact.